MLB Picks, Odds, and Predictions (2024)

FAQs

What percentage of underdogs win in baseball? ›

Over the last 10 years, underdogs in the month of April have gone 1,487-1,866. While that comes out to a mere 44.43% win rate, the average odds in these games is +131.3, which turns into an ROI (return on investment) of +1.0% and profit of $3,114 on a simple $100 wager.

Baseball odds are expressed as 3-digit money line. All money lines are based on $100. The minus (-) on the electronic wagering display and wagering sheets next to the starting pitcher indicates the favorite. The plus (+) indicates the underdog.

Positive Odds: If a team has positive odds, such as +150, it means that a $100 bet on that team would result in a potential profit of $150. The higher the positive number, the greater the potential payout. Negative Odds: If a team has negative odds, such as -200, it indicates the amount you need to bet to win $100.

A wager of $150 at -150 has a potential win of $100. If the underdog for that game has a moneyline of +130, that means for every $1 you bet you can win $1.30, because the risk involved is higher since the underdog has a smaller probability of winning the game. A wager of $100 at +130 has a potential win of $130.

Since 2013, NFL underdogs have a winning percentage of 33.8%. And since 2003, NFL underdogs have a winning percentage of 33.3%. Over those 20 years, dogs have won at least 40% of games only once – 41.8% in 2006-07.

An immaculate inning occurs in baseball when a pitcher strikes out all three batters he faces in one inning using the minimum possible number of pitches: nine. This has happened 114 times in Major League history and has been accomplished by 104 pitchers (79 right-handed and 25 left-handed).

Odds are presented as a positive or negative number next to the team's name. A negative number means the team is favored to win, while a positive number indicates that they are the underdog.

Simply put, the greater the odds against a team, the larger the payout will be for anyone who bets on it. For example, 7 to 2 odds mean that for every $2 you wager, you could win $7 if your bet is successful, while 5 to 1 odds mean you could win $5 for every $1 you bet.

One of the biggest keys to being a successful long-term MLB bettor is remaining disciplined and limiting your plays to the most valuable games of the day. However, baseball is one of the few sports where volume sports betting leads to increased profits.

How do you quantify luck in baseball? ›

The stat “Luck” on Baseball Reference is the difference between a team's Pythagorean Record which is calculated based on their run differential and a team's actual record. It is generally seen as a pretty good representation of a team's luck in close games.

Hit (H) Home Run (HR) Intentional Walk (IBB) Left On Base (LOB)

Professional sport bettors rarely sustain long-term winning percentage above 56% and sometimes the lowest win rate of 53 – 54 %. The break even winning percentage of a profitable sports bettor is typically 52.4%.

In the 140+ year history of Major League Baseball, over 200,000+ games have been played, but only 24 perfect games have been pitched. The first perfect game was pitched on June 12th, 1880 by Lee Richmond at the Worcester Agricultural Fairgrounds in Worcester, Massachusetts.

If a bettor placed a $100 moneyline bet on every underdog in the NCAA Tournament from 2017 to 2023, they'd be up $1,132.

In baseball, a single run can matter a lot: Roughly 28% of all MLB games are decided by one run. This explains why the run line is nearly always set at +/- 1.5, regardless of which teams are playing.